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Keeping 'Em Honest: Wall Street's Track Record Is Not Good
Every December, Barron's, the weekly financial magazine, asks Wall Street strategists to pick the best and worst sectors to invest in, and every year their picks perform poorly relative to the unmanaged Standard & Poor's 500 index. 2017 was much the same. The strategists include brilliant economists, but economists are not seers. It's not uncommon for the consensus forecast of economists to fail to predict if the economy will expand or fall into a recession - a question with just two possible answers. Picking the best and worst investment from among 10 possible industries is much more difficult.more >

Perhaps The Best Economic Conditions In Modern U.S. History
In December, inflation dropped again and retail sales roared again. Growth without almost no inflation is an optimal condition, rare in modern U.S. history. Meanwhile, earnings growth is accelerating and earnings drive stocks.more >

A Vivid Illustration Of How Portfolio Theory Worked In 2017
2017 was a mirror image of 2016 and vividly illustrates how portfolio theory worked in the real world last year. The top performing types of U.S. stocks in 2016 were the biggest laggards in 2017. Meanwhile, the worst-performing types of U.S. stocks in 2016 were the biggest winners in 2017.more >


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